Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 26.465018 31.720388 38.396864 47.780681 61.136176 80.376922 112.241281
2024-12-29 20.480110 26.229352 34.391258 47.614058 70.406920 113.147863 219.428670
2025-01-05 16.739420 22.187021 30.394502 44.822440 72.895322 136.642868 367.368828
2025-01-12 14.036017 18.981919 26.703100 40.984532 71.092795 149.738697 550.405901
2025-01-19 12.194659 16.745249 24.045886 38.103382 69.768842 163.514504 862.442029
2025-01-26 12.334573 17.577216 26.577013 45.809507 97.937335 330.386300 35749.744644
2025-02-02 11.833762 17.264619 27.006133 49.364549 119.055824 579.870236 NaN
2025-02-09 10.707891 15.735663 24.878635 46.350353 116.534740 660.284748 NaN
2025-02-16 10.276990 15.363291 24.920420 48.660315 136.350275 1250.124378 NaN
2025-02-23 9.696247 14.653154 24.164503 48.681087 147.352762 2135.997878 NaN
2025-03-02 9.160318 13.968473 23.357849 48.338124 156.930698 3986.678699 NaN
2025-03-09 8.852023 13.672116 23.324834 50.227241 182.095059 22153.845413 NaN
2025-03-16 8.236530 12.778572 21.955630 47.963433 181.366989 82447.038154 NaN
2025-03-23 7.823696 12.239583 21.311223 47.848938 196.750752 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 7.290135 11.424064 19.945142 45.035108 188.518870 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 6.739120 10.540886 18.348020 41.170233 168.957953 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 6.289239 9.830642 17.093390 38.269634 155.960176 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 6.489385 10.400114 18.836282 46.029379 253.862477 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 6.421229 10.427920 19.309891 49.610834 335.738562 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 6.062002 9.836174 18.187968 46.574177 310.694531 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 5.958751 9.764784 18.362328 48.901286 390.299075 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 5.768278 9.498447 18.010420 48.922214 430.967168 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 5.577500 9.219700 17.598511 48.576678 465.765504 NaN NaN